Medium-duty vehicles powered by gasoline internal combustion engines have a pivotal role in the global transportation sector, especially within the commercial fleet market. Despite the burgeoning trend of electric vehicle adoption, ICE vehicles remain a viable choice for certain applications due to their range, refueling times, and payload capacities. Recent advancements in gasoline ICE technologies have contributed to enhanced fuel efficiency and reduced emissions, offering an immediate and effective solution to mitigate environmental impacts while transitioning towards cleaner transportation solutions.

Advancements in Gasoline Internal Combustion Engines

• Fuel Injection and Combustion Improvements: Modern gasoline engines utilize advanced fuel injection systems, such as direct injection and high-pressure fuel injectors, to improve combustion efficiency and reduce emissions. Optimization of combustion chamber designs, advanced spark ignition systems, and improved air-fuel mixing methods have contributed significantly to these advancements.
• Variable Valve Timing (VVT): Newer engines employ VVT technologies, optimizing valve opening and closing timings. This has resulted in better engine efficiency, fuel economy, and reduced emissions.
• Turbocharging and Downsizing: Turbocharging technology has enabled the design of smaller, more efficient engines with the same power output as larger engines, a concept known as "engine downsizing." This reduces the engine's weight and enhances fuel economy while maintaining vehicle performance.

GHG Emissions in Terms of GGE

The greenhouse gas emissions from gasoline-powered vehicles can be quantified using the concept of gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE). On average, burning one gallon of gasoline produces approximately 8,887 grams of CO2 (EPA, 2021). Recent advancements in gasoline ICEs for medium-duty vehicles have contributed to a decrease in GHG emissions. The improved engines, with advancements like VVT, direct fuel injection, and turbocharging, can now achieve a reduction of around 15-25% in CO2 emissions, bringing the average CO2 emissions down to around 7,100 - 6,700 grams of CO2 per GGE.

Impact on Sustainability and Economic, Environmental, and Social Cost

• Sustainability: While advancements in gasoline ICEs for medium-duty vehicles have led to reduced GHG emissions, the sustainability of this approach is a complex issue. There are considerable concerns around the finite nature of petroleum resources and the associated environmental degradation from extraction and refining processes. However, the immediate availability and established infrastructure for gasoline distribution make it a pragmatic solution in the short-to-midterm.
• Economic Cost: The economic cost of using gasoline ICEs includes not only the direct costs of vehicle purchase and maintenance but also the indirect costs associated with health and environmental effects. While newer technologies have reduced the fuel consumption of these vehicles, volatile fuel prices pose a substantial economic challenge.
• Environmental Cost: Despite significant advancements, gasoline ICEs emit GHGs and contribute to climate change and air pollution. The environmental cost encompasses potential health risks from air pollutants and the broader effects of climate change.
• Social Cost: The social cost includes health impacts due to air pollution, loss of productivity, and broader social implications of climate change, such as displacement of populations and increased disease vectors.

Forecast of Annual Production Units

• United States: Currently, the United States produces around 500,000 units of medium-duty gasoline ICE vehicles annually. Despite the push towards electric vehicles, production of gasoline ICE medium-duty vehicles is expected to remain stable over the next 5 years. Factors such as existing refueling infrastructure, lower upfront costs, and range capabilities support the continued production of these vehicles.
• Global: Global production stands at approximately 5 million units annually. Similar to the US, production is expected to remain stable in the short term, but a gradual decrease is expected over the next decade due to growing electric vehicle adoption and stringent emission regulations.

Conclusion

The advancements in gasoline ICEs for medium-duty vehicles have shown significant improvements in fuel economy and emission reductions. However, these vehicles continue to contribute to GHG emissions and environmental degradation. As we transition to more sustainable transportation alternatives, gasoline ICE vehicles, particularly in the medium-duty commercial fleet sector, will continue to play a critical role in the coming years. Policymakers and manufacturers should strive for a balanced approach, incorporating immediate emission reduction strategies while fostering the broader adoption of electric vehicles.